Positioning Myanmar in the India-China Competition
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Summary
Myanmar has become a key geopolitical battleground in the India–China rivalry. China seeks strategic access to the Indian Ocean, while India views Myanmar as vital to its Act East Policy. Through connectivity projects and infrastructure investments, both powers are competing for long-term influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
For long the India-China battleground has been limited to the Himalayas, border tensions, and diplomatic concerns. These issues do remain critical to both sides as they shape the emerging Asian geopolitics. Moving beyond borders, Myanmar has emerged as the new competitive field between New Delhi and Beijing.
The Geopolitics
Located at the crossroads of South Asia and Southeast Asia, Myanmar occupies a unique geopolitical position. It shares borders with both India and China, provides access to the Bay of Bengal, and serves as a critical link between the Indian Ocean and mainland Southeast Asia. In an era where connectivity, trade routes, and strategic influence are becoming as important as military power, Myanmar has emerged as a key geopolitical battleground.
From Chinese strategic point of view, Myanmar is not merely a neighbouring state, rather “it is a strategic gateway to the Indian Ocean”. Given Beijing’s maritime interests in the Strait of Malacca, 80 per cent of its imported energy and two-thirds of its total trade volume passes through this strait. Any disruption in this maritime chokepoint will have a direct impact on Chinese economy and energy security. To overcome this dilemma, China has invested in Myanmar under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). Apart from this there are other projects such as the Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port, oil and gas pipelines, industrial zones, and transport corridors which have the potential to provide China an opening in the Indian Ocean. These investments, if successful, will strengthen China’s regional influence and develop Beijing’s stronghold in the region.
On the other hand, India also views Myanmar through the lens of its own security, trade, and investment interests. Having a long border is both an opportunity and a challenge for New Delhi, as security remains a concern. For a long time, the India–Myanmar border has been a hotspot for insurgency. The dense forests make it easy for insurgent groups from both countries to cross the border and take refuge without being tracked by security agencies. But from strategic point of view India considers Myanmar as a cornerstone of its neighbourhood first policy, Act East policy and also in its newly proclaimed MAHASAGAR (Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions) doctrine. From an investment point of view, India has invested in projects such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Projectand the India–Myanmar–Thailand (IMT) Trilateral Highway. The objective of such investments is not limited to trade, but rather to strengthen the regional partnership by easing the connectivity between India and Southeast Asia, which will eventually result in increase in trade and economic co-operation.
It can be argued that, what makes the India–China competition in Myanmar particularly interesting is that it is not being fought through conventional military means. Instead, it is a competition of influence. It is a competition over who builds the roads, who develops the ports, who finances infrastructure, who shapes regional connectivity, and ultimately, who becomes Myanmar’s preferred partner in both investment and trade.
As of now India is the fourth largest trading partner of Myanmar. China stands at top, the reason for this is Beijing’s significant financial power and willingness to invest heavily in Myanmar’s infrastructure development. This has enabled it to establish a strong presence across Myanmar despite periods of political instability. Whereas India’s approach has been different, rather than competing directly with Beijing’s financial scale, New Delhi has focused on leveraging geographic proximity, cultural connections, development partnerships, and regional cooperation.
The growing discussions around supply-chain resilience, economic security, and regional connectivity have made countries located along critical trade corridors increasingly important. At the same time, intensifying competition between major powers has elevated the geopolitical value of states that occupy strategic geographic positions. Myanmar fits this description perfectly. Its location gives it the potential to influence trade flows, connectivity networks, and regional strategic calculations. As a result, developments within Myanmar increasingly carry implications far beyond its borders.
The future trajectory of India–China competition in Myanmar will likely depend on which country can deliver sustainable benefits while maintaining long-term partnerships. Infrastructure alone is not enough. Economic opportunities, political engagement, and trust-building combined will play the crucial role in shaping Myanmar’s external relationships.
Disclaimer: Views expressed are of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Statecraft Institute.