Russia’s New Security Pact with the Taliban: A Strategic Partnership or a Return to Soviet-Era Influence?

Summary

The Russia-Taliban security pact signals shifting security arrangements in the region. While the pact is not a mutual defense treaty, it will help the Taliban reduce its reliance on Pakistan while allowing Russia greater regional influence and counterterrorism visibility.

The Taliban and Russia signed a military cooperation agreement, marking a significant milestone in Afghanistan’s post-2021 foreign relations. As the Taliban and Russia celebrate the deal, neither side has released the full text of the agreement. Public statements by both sides suggest that it is not a mutual defence treaty, but rather a technical-military partnership focused on technical assistance, advisory support, intelligence sharing, and border security mechanisms between Afghanistan and its northern neighbours.

According to the Taliban defence minister, Mullah Yaqub, maintenance and modernisation of Soviet-era military equipment in Afghanistan is also part of the cooperation. According to his public statement, he views this pact as a “technical agreement” rather than a “defense treaty”. The Taliban government seeks to forge defence treaties with former foes but strongly controls the domestic narrative. The Taliban does not publicly share the content of agreements, which will spark public outcry and possibly feed local insurgencies against the group.

Under this agreement, there is no indication of mutual defence obligations, troop deployments or security guarantees. Instead, the agreement appears to be symbolically designed to strengthen security relations between the two governments, reluctantly focused on practical cooperation. However, publicly announced elements of the deal require the deployment of Russian technicians, training advisors, and military experts to Afghanistan—a good reason to withhold the full text of the agreement.

The Taliban’s Search for Strategic Partners

Over the last few decades, Russia viewed Afghanistan as a battleground for great power competition, followed by the U.S.-led war to fend off its western rival. Today, Russia is pursuing a non-interventionist approach.

Unlike the Soviet way of seeking direct military involvement, Moscow appears focused on expanding influence through military cooperation, trade and diplomacy, and regional connectivity initiatives. Situated in a strategic intersection, unstable Afghanistan directly threatens Russian interests in neighbouring Central Asian republics, many of which depend on Moscow.

Furthermore, military cooperation with Afghanistan provides Russia with a greater visibility into transnational terrorism, drug trafficking, and politically positioning itself as a key external stakeholder in the country’s future.

The Pakistan Factor

This is what the Taliban desperately needs at this time. The newly signed Russia-Taliban security partnership may be replacing Islamabad as an external security supporter with Moscow. Since the Taliban’s emergence, the Pakistani military apparatus was widely viewed as the group’s principal external saviour. However, relations between the two countries have become gradually strained after the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021.

Followed by October 2025 Pakistan’s air strike on Afghanistan, cross-border shelling, clashes over the Durand Line, and accusing the Taliban of hosting anti-Pakistan militant groups inAfghan territory, have contributed to growing tensions between the two old friends. The Taliban failed to match a response to the Pakistani attacks militarily.

Closer security ties with Russia may diversify Kabul’s external security supporters and possibly gain access to military capabilities to defend its territory against the new foe. The anger is very real. The Taliban defence minister, Mullah Yaqub, openly teased Islamabad over Kabul’s military agreement with Russia. He warned that “we will try to ensure that Pakistan no longer dares to attack” the Afghan territory.

Similarly, Moscow not only gains influence in Afghan affairs but expand its role in a region where China, Pakistan, Iran, and other near peers are competing to shape the sphere of influence.

Historical Pattern – The Soviet Way

The most important question is whether the agreement produces tangible outcomes.The public information available so far suggests that the pact is not a military alliance and does not involve Russian troop deployments or security guarantees. Instead, it appears focused on practical cooperation in areas such as military training, intelligence sharing, counterterrorism, military technology, and defence cooperation.

The public information available suggests it may not be a military alliance at this point, but both countries have a similar experience in the past. If implemented with tangible outcomes, this pact could become a foundation for a mutual defence alliance between the two countries.

This will also encourage other regional powers to forge military agreements with the politically isolated Taliban government. However, the concern is Russia’s Soviet way of influence.

Historically, initial military cooperation can serve as the foundation for military alliances. Afghanistan and modern-day Russia have a long history of turning basic technical-military cooperation into a full invasion and military intervention. The Soviet involved in Afghanistan well before the 1979 invasion through technical assistance, military training, security cooperation, and equipment maintenance. All started with friendly treaties but ended with full-scale military intervention.

The emerging Russia-Taliban security agreement shares few characteristics with earlier Soviet engagement. Nevertheless, the Kabul-Moscow relationship will depend on security conditions, Taliban’s political status, and Russia’s geographical ambitions in the region.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Statecraft Institute.