Rethinking the India-Bangladesh Ganges Treaty

Summary

As the India–Bangladesh Ganges Water-Sharing Treaty nears its 2026 expiry, this commentary assesses its role in developing bilateral cooperation and argues for a renewed agreement that addresses climate uncertainty, ecological sustainability, and the evolving realities of transboundary water governance.

The year 2026 will be an important year in the history of Indo-Bangladeshi bilateral ties due to the expiration of the Ganges Water-Sharing Treaty that was signed in December 1996. This treaty, which has been acknowledged as one of the best instances of cooperation over trans-boundary water management in South Asia, has played an important role in managing the flow of water from the Ganges during the dry season at the Farakka Barrage between the two nations. The expiration of this treaty will give rise to both challenges and opportunities for the two neighbours.

The issue of Ganges water sharing emerged following the construction of the Farakka Barrage in the 1970s. India considered the building of the barrage as necessary to divert water to the Bhagirathi-Hooghly River system to keep the channel navigable and reduce siltation, while Bangladesh being a downstream riparian state, was concerned that reduced water flows during the dry season could adversely affect its agriculture, fisheries, navigation, and broader economy. The dispute persisted for decades, with both countries adopting differing positions regarding water allocation and river management. However, sustained diplomatic engagement, political commitment, and a series of interim arrangements eventually created the conditions for a negotiated settlement. After years of negotiations, temporary agreements, and exchanges of views, India and Bangladesh signed the Ganges Water-Sharing Treaty in 1996, establishing a framework for the equitable distribution of dry-season flows at Farakka, regular data sharing, and institutional mechanisms for cooperation and dispute management. The treaty not only addressed a long-standing source of tension but also demonstrated the willingness of both countries to resolve transboundary water disputes through dialogue and cooperation.

During the last three decades, the treaty has played an important role in stabilising the bilateral relationship. Unlike many transboundary water conflicts that have led to protracted political confrontation, the Ganges agreement provided a platform for dialogue and exchange of hydrological data between the two countries. This was a successful demonstration that cooperation in the use of transboundary rivers is achievable, even in an environment where asymmetry exists among the states. This is why the treaty has always been used as a case of exemplary water diplomacy in South Asia.

Yet, the treaty has not been without criticism. Bangladeshi experts and policymakers have from time to time pointed out the lack of water availability during dry seasons according to what Bangladesh should get based on the agreement. Besides, doubts have arisen concerning the flow measurement and its effects on ecology. On the other hand, India too has its own problems, including increased need for water within the country, agricultural needs, industrialisation, and ensuring navigability and related economic activities of the Hooghly River system.

The context surrounding the treaty today is markedly different from that of 1996. Climate change has emerged as perhaps the most significant factor reshaping the future of the Ganges basin. Scientific studies increasingly point to changing rainfall patterns, glacier retreat in the Himalayas, extreme weather events, and growing variability in river flows. Population growth, urbanisation, industrialisation and groundwater depletion have further intensified pressure on water resources across the basin. As a result, a treaty designed primarily around volumetric allocation may no longer be sufficient to address the complex realities of contemporary river governance.

Recent developments indicate that discussions surrounding the treaty’s future are gaining momentum. While official statements from both governments suggested that formal renewal negotiations had not commenced as of early 2026, technical consultations and stakeholder engagements have continued. Delegations from both countries have undertaken visits and assessments related to river flows and treaty implementation, reflecting recognition on both sides that a new framework will soon be necessary.

The key question is whether India and Bangladesh will simply renew the existing treaty or pursue a more comprehensive agreement. A mere extension may preserve continuity, but it would do little to address emerging environmental and climatic challenges. A revised framework should move beyond the traditional focus on water allocation and incorporate principles of integrated river basin management. Such an approach would recognise the river as an ecological system rather than merely a resource to be divided between states.

Future negotiations should therefore prioritise several key areas. First, enhanced data transparency and joint monitoring mechanisms can help build trust and reduce recurring disputes over flow measurements. Second, climate adaptation must become an integral component of the agreement, including provisions for drought management, flood forecasting, and ecosystem protection. Third, greater cooperation on sediment management, groundwater sustainability, and environmental flows would contribute to the long-term health of the river system. Finally, stakeholder participation including state governments, local communities and scientific experts should be strengthened to ensure that water governance reflects both national interests and local realities.

The expiry of the Ganges Water-Sharing Treaty in 2026 should not be viewed solely as a diplomatic challenge. Rather, it represents a rare opportunity for India and Bangladesh to modernise one of South Asia’s most important water agreements. The manner in which India and Bangladesh renew or revise the treaty will shape the political climate, institutional trust and future trajectory of bilateral water diplomacy. The success of future negotiations will depend on whether both countries can move beyond narrow allocation debates and embrace a broader vision of cooperative river governance. In an age of climate uncertainty, the sustainability of the Ganges will require not only sharing water but also sharing responsibility for the future of a river that sustains millions on both sides of the border.

Disclaimer: Views expressed are of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Statecraft Institute.