Arms-control

With New START lapsed, a post-treaty framework will have to accommodate China as a third nuclear superpower. Using 2026 force data and exchange simulations, this Issue Brief finds that all three powers could hold assured retaliation within New START-style ceilings — and that missile defences would have to be near-perfect to change that conclusion.

Although the expiration of the New START agreement and rising doubts about the utility of arms control have become apparent, abandoning discussions on further arms agreements will be a strategically shortsighted. Although the Russian aggression in Ukraine, Russian modernisation of its nuclear forces and increasing military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing have added to the threat environment, a fully uncontrolled nuclear arms race will lead to mistrust and escalate the chances of nuclear escalation.