Strategy

The Persian Gulf conflict exposed vulnerabilities to US bases before Iranian missile and drone strikes. Lessons urge a shift to deterrence-by-denial in the Indo-Pacific: dispersed forces, mobile assets, and strengthened alliances along the First Island Chain to counter Chinese A2/AD threats.

Bangladesh’s economic development has led to deeper Chinese investment in infrastructure, ports, defence, and industry, pulling it into China’s orbit. India must re-draw its Bangladesh strategy to counter growing Chinese influence in its neighbourhood.

India-Bangladesh relations, since 1971 have oscillated from a rarest success story from Hasina era to an overt turmoil under Yunus. Tarique Rahman’s election as Bangladesh’s new Prime Minister offers an optimistic yet cautious window for a reset. But given Rahman’s Bangladesh first policy, India must earn back its influence and not merely assume it.